Post by Rangers GM (Pete) on Feb 2, 2016 21:04:35 GMT -6
I had a hard time with him and purposely waited to do some research and also to see where the other OFers ended up. Sorry in advance for all the detailed analysis, but I think it tells a good story.
So we have (I think they were all approved)
Justin Upton $8,250,000
Lorenzo Cain $9,000,000
Jason Heyward $8,250,000
Giancarlo Stanton $11,000,000
Jorge Soler $5,000,000
Cruz is a tough one, last season had a career year and has put together two 40+ HR seasons. But he is now 35 years old and on should be on the downside. Of the comparisons above, I have to remove Stanton, who is one of the best all round keeper fantasy players right now and anyone would be happy to build a dynasty team around him. While Cruz has the HRs, Upton has the SBs, other categories are fairly equal. Cruz did hit .300 last season, a first for him in his career year, but based on history, it is doubtful he will repeat that.
Steamer Projections for Nelson Cruz:
31 HRs, 77 Runs, 93 Rbis, 3 SBs, .255 Avg (ouch) .797 OPs
Steamer Projections for Justin Upton (probably overall closest comparable for total stats)
28 HRs, 85 Runs, 91 Rbis, 13 SBs, .270 avg, .836 OPs
I know these are only projections, I can list other sources but they are essentially similar
So then I asked myself of the list above who would I rather have in a keeper/dynasty league? If salaries were equal, I would take anyone else over the next 3 years over Cruz.
Looking at ESPNs top 250 for keeper leagues (all players)
espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/id/13777781/top-250-fantasy-baseball-keeper-rankings-2015-beyond
Rankings are as follows: Stanton #9, Upton #23, Heyward #47, Cain #50, Soler #85, Nelson Cruz #102
so I checked another keeper ranking that was by position
Fantasy Assembly Dynasty/Keeper ranks (and looked at JUST outfielders)
fantasyassembly.com/2015/11/22/2016-outfield-dynastykeeper-rankings-top-60/
Stanton #3, Upton #9, Cain #13, Heyward #17, Nelson Cruz #27, Soler #29
So it seems like based on both of these rankings for keeper leagues, the "experts" see Cruz in decline mode and not as valuable as the others that have resigned, obviously due to his being 35 while Upton (28), Heyward (26), Stanton (26), Cain (29), Soler (23) are all basically entering their prime and should improve or at least maintain production for the next 3-5 years. While I would prefer any of the other players on my team over Cruz, Cruz is what I have so I move forward with the resign.
His last contract was for $8,000,000. I thought about raising it based on his production last year, I thought about lowering it based on his age (along w the note in the rules about being acceptable to lower a contract for a player >35yo). But I will offer the same contract for him but for only 3 years, which brings him to 38 years old. Also, there an outside chance in the next year or two he becomes a full time DH which limits rostering him.
Rangers Offer: Nelson Cruz $8,000,000 (2018, NTC 2016)
Based on everything I cited above, I think this is a fair offer for him related to production, predictions and rankings. I am curious to hear TAB or other opinions.
A bit tongue in cheek, but if you think it is low and own one of the players on the list above, I would be happy to match contracts as long as afterwards we swap Cruz straight up for that player I matched (if that makes sense). Think of it from that angle and I think you will agree that Cruz is not worth as much as those listed.
Thanks
Pete - Rangers
So we have (I think they were all approved)
Justin Upton $8,250,000
Lorenzo Cain $9,000,000
Jason Heyward $8,250,000
Giancarlo Stanton $11,000,000
Jorge Soler $5,000,000
Cruz is a tough one, last season had a career year and has put together two 40+ HR seasons. But he is now 35 years old and on should be on the downside. Of the comparisons above, I have to remove Stanton, who is one of the best all round keeper fantasy players right now and anyone would be happy to build a dynasty team around him. While Cruz has the HRs, Upton has the SBs, other categories are fairly equal. Cruz did hit .300 last season, a first for him in his career year, but based on history, it is doubtful he will repeat that.
Steamer Projections for Nelson Cruz:
31 HRs, 77 Runs, 93 Rbis, 3 SBs, .255 Avg (ouch) .797 OPs
Steamer Projections for Justin Upton (probably overall closest comparable for total stats)
28 HRs, 85 Runs, 91 Rbis, 13 SBs, .270 avg, .836 OPs
I know these are only projections, I can list other sources but they are essentially similar
So then I asked myself of the list above who would I rather have in a keeper/dynasty league? If salaries were equal, I would take anyone else over the next 3 years over Cruz.
Looking at ESPNs top 250 for keeper leagues (all players)
espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/id/13777781/top-250-fantasy-baseball-keeper-rankings-2015-beyond
Rankings are as follows: Stanton #9, Upton #23, Heyward #47, Cain #50, Soler #85, Nelson Cruz #102
so I checked another keeper ranking that was by position
Fantasy Assembly Dynasty/Keeper ranks (and looked at JUST outfielders)
fantasyassembly.com/2015/11/22/2016-outfield-dynastykeeper-rankings-top-60/
Stanton #3, Upton #9, Cain #13, Heyward #17, Nelson Cruz #27, Soler #29
So it seems like based on both of these rankings for keeper leagues, the "experts" see Cruz in decline mode and not as valuable as the others that have resigned, obviously due to his being 35 while Upton (28), Heyward (26), Stanton (26), Cain (29), Soler (23) are all basically entering their prime and should improve or at least maintain production for the next 3-5 years. While I would prefer any of the other players on my team over Cruz, Cruz is what I have so I move forward with the resign.
His last contract was for $8,000,000. I thought about raising it based on his production last year, I thought about lowering it based on his age (along w the note in the rules about being acceptable to lower a contract for a player >35yo). But I will offer the same contract for him but for only 3 years, which brings him to 38 years old. Also, there an outside chance in the next year or two he becomes a full time DH which limits rostering him.
Rangers Offer: Nelson Cruz $8,000,000 (2018, NTC 2016)
Based on everything I cited above, I think this is a fair offer for him related to production, predictions and rankings. I am curious to hear TAB or other opinions.
A bit tongue in cheek, but if you think it is low and own one of the players on the list above, I would be happy to match contracts as long as afterwards we swap Cruz straight up for that player I matched (if that makes sense). Think of it from that angle and I think you will agree that Cruz is not worth as much as those listed.
Thanks
Pete - Rangers
, jk. I think this is fair given age and value of other resigns.
