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Post by stevew (MARLINS GM) on Feb 1, 2017 10:40:12 GMT -6
Utilizing Baseball Reference, the closest comp to Trumbo that would be relevant to this league would be Carlos Quentin. Both for their career so far and through age 30 seasons, their numbers are pretty similar, with Trumbo having the edge in HR (mostly due to last year's 47) and Quentin having about a 50 point advantage in OBP, despite them having fairly similar averages. Here is what I found through their age 30 season:
Trumbo .251 BA .303 OBP 178 HR 517 RBI 411 R 231 BB 22 SB in 849 games, 3167 ABs over 7 seasons with a 9.6 WAR
Quentin .255 BA .350 OBP 150 HR 473 RBI 407 R 281 BB 16 SB in 784 games, 2660 ABs over 8 season with a 11.0 WAR
If I interpret the board correctly from what I found, I believe Quentin was signed for 3 years @ $5M. I believe the comp to Quentin is almost identical, especially if you even out the number of games and ABs through the age 30 season, possibly Quentin edging Trumbo out due to the OBP difference.
So with all this being said, the Marlins would like to resign Mark Trumbo for 3 years @ $5m
Mark Trumbo (RF) - $5.0M (2017NTC)(2019)
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Post by Dodgers GM (Jerry) on Feb 1, 2017 12:20:27 GMT -6
Deny
Mark Trumbo to me is as good as JD Martinez, L. Cain, almost as good as G. Stanton and should be paid as they are. I am not saying he needs to be paid as Stanton is, but 5M doesn't pay for what Trumbo can do.
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Post by stevew (MARLINS GM) on Feb 1, 2017 13:02:57 GMT -6
Can I get a little more explanation to that please? Or where my comparison /logic went awry? Simply saying to look at last year doesn't really help. I resigned someone last year as well. Was Quentin's numbers not close enough? Has something in the rules changed since the Quentin resign ocurred? Any info would be helpful as just based on your comment alone you feel like I am way off, despite me laying out how I came to the number.
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Post by Braves GM (Isaiah) on Feb 1, 2017 13:13:07 GMT -6
Dodgers - I'm interested as to which resigns you are referring to from last year. The ones I looked at last year (and Steve's comp listed) seem to be pretty close to in line with this offer by a few 100k. Before I cast my vote I just want to make sure I am not missing something.
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Post by White Sox GM (Jon) on Feb 1, 2017 13:14:34 GMT -6
I'm not saying one way or the other yet; I still need to take a closer look at your proposal... But Quentin was re-signed before the rules changed, so he may just be saying it would be good to use more recent comparisons post rule change. I don't know if it changes your offer at all, but I'll take a closer look later today and give a vote. Thanks!
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Post by Dodgers GM (Jerry) on Feb 1, 2017 13:23:51 GMT -6
Sure, I am referring to Justin Upton, Lorenzo Cain and G. Stanton which I referred to in the thread above. I can approve a resign for the 8M range but 5M for someone hitting over 30 HR's I can't approve.
2016 League Ranks:
• 1st in AL in HR (47)
• 6th in AL in RBI (108)
• 9th in AL in SLG (.533)
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Post by stevew (MARLINS GM) on Feb 1, 2017 13:27:53 GMT -6
Just as a response to Dodgers player comps, according to ESPNs keeper rankings (they use 4 years out to rank I believe): Stanton is #22 (age 26 when resigned here), Martinez #35 (age 29 this year), Cain #84 (age 29 when resigned), and Trumbo # 116 (age 31).
I know the 47 home runs sticks out to everyone but he hit 22 the year before. Also, I've read articles that said HR in general were up across the board last year, thus devaluing the 47. He's essentially a HR guy and that's it. Which is why he has a hard time signing with a real team for what he wanted. Same thing is happening to Chris Carter, who hit 41 and may sign in Japan!
I've done the research and stand by my original offer and hope that the numbers are used as a gauge and not simply an "eye test".
Thank you all for the consideration.
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Post by stevew (MARLINS GM) on Feb 1, 2017 13:31:18 GMT -6
Thank you for bringing that up Rays. I'm the one who signed Stanton. If the logic applies that I should base the resign off of Trumbos 47 HR, then should I have been able to sign Stanton based on his 26 HR and down year? No way would that have flown and I think that's flawed logic. You have to look at the body of work of who the player is and not simply the year before his resign year to assign a value. Just my .02 (ok maybe .25 by now).
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Post by morf1980 (Rays GM) on Feb 1, 2017 13:38:41 GMT -6
I agree. thats why you would never pay 11mill per to sign Trumbo. That's a young mans number. My .25 cents would be to have him about equal value to Martinez. Martinez steals bases about the same. Martinez has upside as a hitter for average whereas Trumbo has upside for HR and RBI. Martinez has injury history. All are equal stats in this league and win you 1 game a week. Maybe even a little less than Martinez cuz he is 2 years older.
But again, you don't have to listen to me. I'm not on TAB. Each of those guys has their own specific criteria to judge an offer. One guy may say it's a perfect offer and the next thinks it's nowhere close.
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Post by stevew (MARLINS GM) on Feb 1, 2017 13:46:18 GMT -6
And just as an aside where can I read up on the rule changes where the $5M offer for Quentin would be different back then. Or if someone could explain it quickly that might help as well. It might help me understand better why my offer is described as way off despite almost identical stats for same aged player. I don't want to waste anyone's time.
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Post by Rockies GM (Joey) on Feb 1, 2017 13:48:58 GMT -6
Sorry $5 mil is not enough money esp when your offering the bare minimal in years.
OF Re-Signed.
Nick Swisher $9,000,000
Adam Jones $10,500,000
Shane Victorino $7,500,000
Colby Rasmus $4,500,000
Carlos Quentin $5,000,000
Shin-Soo Choo $8,500,000
Melvin "BJ" Upton $8,500,000
Carlos Gomez - $10,000,000
Matt Kemp $14.500,000
Jorge Soler - $5,000,000
Andre Ethier $7,000,000
Yasiel Puig $7,00,000
Nelson Cruz $8,000,000
Jacoby Ellsbury - $10,500,000
Nelson Cruz RF/DH - $8,000,000
Jason Heyward $8,250,000
Giancarlo Stanton - $11,000,000
Josh Hamilton $14,000,000
Andrew McCutchen - $12,000,000
Hunter Pence $9,000,000
Curtis Granderson $7,500,000
Justin Upton - $8,250,000
Lorenzo Cain - $9,000,000
Since 2011
2011 29 HR 87 RBI
2012 32 HR 95 RBI
2013 34 HR 100 RBI
2014 14 HR 61 RBI (only 88 GM 328 ABs)
2015 22 HR 64 RBI
2016 47 HR 108 RBI
That is avg in 5 full yr 33 HR 91 RBI
I would likely approve $7-$8 mil but no way $5 mil your basically offering him the 2nd lowest OF re-sign in the leagues history and some of our re-signs have changed over time we changed our re-sign system a couple of years ago.
DENIED #2 (0-2)
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Post by stevew (MARLINS GM) on Feb 1, 2017 13:58:39 GMT -6
Yes. It's the second lowest because I based the offer off of that guy (Carlos Quentin) because he was the only name that popped up on Baseball Reference's website for comparable players to Mark Trumbo through age 30 season. Nobody else on that list of OF you provide show up as statistic comps to Trumbo. Was the Quentin resign for longer than 3 years? I still don't know what changed since then to make the contract numbers inflate.
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Post by Rockies GM (Joey) on Feb 1, 2017 14:01:42 GMT -6
Sorry there is no way Trumbo is the 2nd worst re-signed OFer no way I can approve $5 mil.
League started in 2012 we changed re-sign rule in 2014. I do not know how the old one was laid out but it has changed.
Quentin re-sign was not on this board so it was between 2012-2013.
Using Quentin solely is probably a bad idea since he was way early in the league before things really grew and we got a better idea of re-sign value.
A lot of leagues that use re-sign early years were kind of bad and prices had to adjust as we got a better idea of what we were doing same is true here where you look at guys re-signed in 2012/2013 vs 2014 to now we have made adjustments.
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Post by White Sox GM (Jon) on Feb 1, 2017 23:37:08 GMT -6
Denied #3.
I'm going to have to agree after looking at this some more. $5M is much too low.
I double checked on Quentin as well (since I was the one that re-signed him). I had re-signed him to a 5 year deal after 2012. Which obviously is a retarded move under the new rules, but there didn't used to be limits on how many re-signs you could hold on your roster, which is why I put up a stink about it when we changed rules lol. He's still taking up a f****** re-sign slot on my team. I know you don't have that info since that was on the old board and no record of it here, but coming off an injury season and going off old rates it made more sense at the time. But it makes no sense under the new rules, and Trumbo is in a very different position in his career than Quentin was at the time.
TL;DR - I agree, $5M is too low and need to look at comps post-2014 for a better gauge on Trumbo's value.
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Post by White Sox GM (Jon) on Feb 1, 2017 23:37:53 GMT -6
Please feel free to post a second offer any time.
Thanks
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