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Post by stevew (MARLINS GM) on Feb 2, 2017 8:38:08 GMT -6
Marlins would like to resign:
Mark Trumbo - $7,000,000(2017 NTC)(2019)
See previous attempt for commentary and justification.
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Post by White Sox GM (Jon) on Feb 2, 2017 12:28:13 GMT -6
Quentin is still a terrible comp - you need to look at other comps. There's plenty of more recent OF re-signs to compare to. Here's a bunch of them:
Adam Jones $10,500,000 (2015 NTC) (2017)
J.D. Martinez - $9,000,000 (2017 NTC) (2020)
Carlos Gomez - $10,000,000 (2014 NTC) (2018)
Yasiel Puig $7,00,000 (2016 NT)(2020)
Nelson Cruz RF/DH - $8,000,000 (2016 NTC)(2018)
Jason Heyward $8,250,000 (2016 NTC)(2020)
Lorenzo Cain - $9,000,000 (2016NTC) (2020)
You're essential valuing Trumbo the same as Puig. There are age factors but Puig coming off multiple injuries, and not gauranteed a job due to a world of off the field problems is not a good comp for Trumbo IMO. Trumbo is coming off a 47 HR season, and has been averaging 30 HR's pretty easily. He's signed for 3 yrs in BAL and should have no problem averaging at least 30 HR along with 90R/100RBI/.250avg, or something very close to that for 3 yrs.
JD Martinez, Adam Jones, and Nelson Cruz are much closer comps. Martinez and Jones are 2 years younger when they re-signed, 29 v 31. And Cruz 4 yrs older at 35 when he re-signed, thus the discount on him. I'll be looking for an AAV around Martinez's if over only three years. Shorter in years than Martinez due to the age, but same AAV. If you want to go longer in years I may accept a little less in AAV. I just can't justify Trumbo being any less valuable than that.
Denied #1
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Post by Dodgers GM (Jerry) on Feb 2, 2017 13:18:55 GMT -6
Denied #2
The list is from 2014 - 2016 ReSigns, I would value Trumbo against the first set of players below giving him a value around 9M.
1st group
Adam Jones $10,500,000 (2015 NTC) (2017) - very comparable
J.D. Martinez - $9,000,000 (2017 NTC) (2020) - very comparable
Nelson Cruz RF/DH - $8,000,000 (2016 NTC)(2018) - Older than Trumbo last year.
2nd group
Jason Heyward $8,250,000 (2016 NTC)(2020) - no offense in 2016
Lorenzo Cain - $9,000,000 (2016 NTC) (2020) - not a power hitter
Carlos Gomez - $10,000,000 (2014 NTC) (2018) - not a great 2016
Yasiel Puig - $7,00,000 (2016 NT)(2020) Platoon player now
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Post by stevew (MARLINS GM) on Feb 2, 2017 13:51:12 GMT -6
Ok so it looks like this one is also going to get shot down as well. It's easy to look at the so called comps above in hind sight, but let's look at the ESPN Keeper Rankings again for the year that they were signed. ESPN again utilizes a 5 year formula projecting into the future to determine the ranking. I'm assuming these fantasy experts take into consideration all things fantasy that would be applicable to our league, I.E. stats and age. So:
1st Group
Adam Jones - resigned before 2015 season - keeper rank pre 2015 season - 19
J.D. Martinez - resigned this year - keeper rank now - 35
Nelson Cruz - resigned last year - keeper rank pre 2016 season - 127 (I'm sure this is largely due to his age at time of 35 and the ranking takes into account his age 40 season)
2nd Group
Jason Heyward - resigned before 2016 season - keeper rank pre 2016 season - 56
Lorenzo Cain - resigned before 2016 season - keeper rank pre 2016 season - 59
Carlos Gomez - resigned before the 2014 season - keeper rank pre 2014 season - 29 (note this came from another fantasy site as ESPN's link to this one did not give the page)
Yasiel Puig - resigned before 2016 season - keeper rank pre 2016 season - 41
So it's easy to bash on the second group now, but look at the keeper rankings to all of those guys. Pretty high if you ask me. Right now, Trumbo's keeper rank is 116, well below anyone on this list absent Old Man Cruz. Unless there is something that we all know that the fantasy experts do not, I still contend that Trumbo should be at the bottom of all of those names listed, which is where $7M falls. But I guess I will wait until the vote is final.
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Post by Dodgers GM (Jerry) on Feb 2, 2017 14:30:36 GMT -6
I would wait, that is why we have 5 or 6 LM's.
Everyone makes a decision based on what they read, hear and see and my thoughts say Trumbo is a power bat for the next few years. I am not sure that he will play that much defense as he is slated to be a DH, but still could based on team injuries and his teammates performance. I think he will have between 28 and 40 HRs this year, bat around 250 and have over 550 ABs. I own him in a few contract leagues and in every league his contract is over 10M. In one league that Joey and I are both in Trumbo just went for 14.1M in FA.
We have a resign rule here that allows you to offer a contract that keeps you out of the bidding system that always inflates a players value.
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Post by stevew (MARLINS GM) on Feb 2, 2017 14:37:14 GMT -6
Ok thanks. I just wanted to point out what the perceived value of the comps were AT THE TIME of the resign and not necessarily what they have done since the resign.
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Post by Rockies GM (Joey) on Feb 2, 2017 14:46:53 GMT -6
I have to think about this before I vote since your sticking with only 3-yrs.
Fantrax proj for Trumbo this year .257/.796 85 R 35 HR 99 RBI 2 SB.
I will review and vote asap.
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Post by Braves GM (Isaiah) on Feb 2, 2017 17:33:06 GMT -6
I think $7M is a good enough offer. I think Trumbo is good, but last season was a pretty significant outlier compared to the rest of his career. Sure he could repeat, or he might drop back down to 20+ HRs and this would be an overpay and a wasted resign. Given the risk associated, I'm fine with this offer.
Approval #1
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Post by Rockies GM (Joey) on Feb 3, 2017 15:29:27 GMT -6
I did say I wanted to see $7-$8 mil so this is pretty borderline for me. If Trumbo goes back to 30 HR instead of 40+ it does change his value some.
Approval #2 (2-2)
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Post by Rockies GM (Joey) on Feb 4, 2017 15:19:09 GMT -6
Bump for Phillies or Padres
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2017 17:06:52 GMT -6
Denied #3.
I'm basing this on the current 2017 Fantrax projections. They have Trumbo as the #19 outfielder. Justin Upton sits at #20. Fantrax projects Trumbo's HR's and RBI's to be 35 & 99 which place him 5th in each category among outfielders. For a short 3 year contract, I'd want to see 7.5M minimum as Nelson Cruz got 8M last year for a 3 year deal.
I did read the previous posts and about Carlos Quentin in particular. As was mentioned, the re-sign rules were different back then. A couple of the major differences were that Quentin's re-sign came with a 3 year "no trade clause" and buyouts of re-signs were not allowed then. Re-signs today are less risky because they can be bought out and a player can be traded earlier.
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Post by Rockies GM (Joey) on Feb 4, 2017 17:22:55 GMT -6
You get one more chance so PM TAB if you want to know exactly what they need if unsure. If 3rd attempt denied he goes to free agency.
I think your close you only need to flip potentially 1 voter but you really want to do all you can to make sure you know what your final offer needs to be.
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Post by stevew (MARLINS GM) on Feb 4, 2017 18:18:08 GMT -6
I still don't understand some of the opposition points here. Phillies is now comparing Trumbo to Upton based on THIS year's Fantrax projections. WHEN Upton was resigned he was the #23 ranked keeper according to ESPN. Trumbo is ranked 116!!!! Upton was 26 at time of resign and Trumbo is 31. I feel like this would be a much easier process if the TAB just told everyone what the valuations were for every player and we agree to sign or not. This going back and forth is a pretty frustrating process when I have put ACTUAL rankings and data and it can get shot down by a simple "I think he should be in line with this guy", or "Projections for next year vs guys that are already signed and have had bad years". I'm sure I'm not making any friends here, but I can't be the only one frustrated by this. So basically I have one more attempt to guess at what you guys value in your own heads regardless of what I have found and put on here. I'm not manipulating any of the rankings or data that I've found. So if any of the TAB members want to tell me what will be approved, I'm happy to hear it.
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Post by Dodgers GM (Jerry) on Feb 4, 2017 18:33:36 GMT -6
We are all friends, this process is nothing more than an evaluation process so you can keep a selected player without going through FA. I wrote twice that I value Trumbo against Upton and a couple others, then the Phillies said he would want to see a minimum of 7.5M. I still think he should be at least 8 but you now have an idea of what it would take to get him resigned.
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Post by Rockies GM (Joey) on Feb 4, 2017 20:31:52 GMT -6
I don't know why your using ESPN for a fantrax league either. They also probably take into account different stats than what is used here.
Either way doesn't really matter attempt #3 went off without an issues.
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