Post by PadresGM on Feb 11, 2017 18:41:33 GMT -6
According to White Sox last year in Johnny Cueto's thread "The going rate on re-signing an ace is about $10-12M." Obviously, Chris Sale is an ace, so I will offer him a contract in that range. As for what specific amount I will give him, I will calculate that here. I will start by looking at a pitcher whose skillset is very similar in my mind, Stephen Strasburg, who received 4 @ $11.5M
Sale
2016- IP: 226.2 W: 17 ERA/FIP: 3.34/3.46 K/9: 9.25 BB/9: 1.79 age 27
2015- IP: 208.2 W: 13 ERA/FIP: 3.41/2.73 K/9: 11.82 BB/9: 1.81 age 26
Strasburg
2015- IP: 127.1 W: 11 ERA/FIP: 3.46/2.81 K/9: 10.96 BB/9 1.84 age 26/27
2014- IP: 215.0 W: 14 ERA/FIP: 3.14/2.94 K/9: 10.13 BB/9: 1.80 age 25/26
Sale looks like he's better than Strasburg. In that case, let's move up another tier, to his current teammate, Max Scherzer, who received 5 years @ $12M
Scherzer
2013- IP: 214.1 W: 21 ERA/FIP: 2.90/2.74 K/9: 10.08 BB/9: 2.35 age 28/29
2012- IP: 187.2 W: 16 ERA/FIP: 3.74/3.27 K/9: 11.08 BB/9: 2.88 age 27/28
Ok, this looks a lot more similar. Sale has a slight advantage in innings, but at the same time, he faces a lot of doubt with his wind-up, so they look even. Wins look dead even, especially as Sale moves to the Red Sox, who will likely give him more support. ERA/FIP also look pretty even. Scherzer probably has an advantage in k/9 whereas Sale has an advantage in BB/9. While Sale is about a year younger than Scherzer, he faces some injury concern, even missing some time in 2014. Overall, Scherzer and Sale seem very similar, so I will offer a similar contract. Thus, I offer Sale a contract for 5 years @ $12,000,000
Sale
2016- IP: 226.2 W: 17 ERA/FIP: 3.34/3.46 K/9: 9.25 BB/9: 1.79 age 27
2015- IP: 208.2 W: 13 ERA/FIP: 3.41/2.73 K/9: 11.82 BB/9: 1.81 age 26
Strasburg
2015- IP: 127.1 W: 11 ERA/FIP: 3.46/2.81 K/9: 10.96 BB/9 1.84 age 26/27
2014- IP: 215.0 W: 14 ERA/FIP: 3.14/2.94 K/9: 10.13 BB/9: 1.80 age 25/26
Sale looks like he's better than Strasburg. In that case, let's move up another tier, to his current teammate, Max Scherzer, who received 5 years @ $12M
Scherzer
2013- IP: 214.1 W: 21 ERA/FIP: 2.90/2.74 K/9: 10.08 BB/9: 2.35 age 28/29
2012- IP: 187.2 W: 16 ERA/FIP: 3.74/3.27 K/9: 11.08 BB/9: 2.88 age 27/28
Ok, this looks a lot more similar. Sale has a slight advantage in innings, but at the same time, he faces a lot of doubt with his wind-up, so they look even. Wins look dead even, especially as Sale moves to the Red Sox, who will likely give him more support. ERA/FIP also look pretty even. Scherzer probably has an advantage in k/9 whereas Sale has an advantage in BB/9. While Sale is about a year younger than Scherzer, he faces some injury concern, even missing some time in 2014. Overall, Scherzer and Sale seem very similar, so I will offer a similar contract. Thus, I offer Sale a contract for 5 years @ $12,000,000
