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Post by rymiller (Angels GM) on Feb 10, 2018 23:12:39 GMT -6
This looks good to me.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2018 23:21:02 GMT -6
On the player Justin Turner (age 32 at re-sign) who was re-signed at 8.5M, I don't really see where he had a lengthy track record of sustained production at all.
He was resigned after the 2016 season where his previous 3 year's scores were: 64.37 - 64.15 - 64.23.
His total at bats for those 3 years were: 556, 385 & 288.
He hit his career high in HR's in 2016 with 27 and RBI's with 90. Prior to that, they were 16 & 60.
Gonzalez (age 28) by comparison 3 year scores are: 76.47 - 33.31 - 37.82.
Total at bats the last 3 years are: 455, 484, 344,
Career high on HR's and RBI's last year at 23 & 90. Prior was 13 & 51.
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The J.D. Martinez comp:
J.D. Martinez - $9,000,000
70.25 - 81.54 - 80.88 (75.73 avg) 10.6M
Those are the scores prior to his resigning last year. What he did in 2017 had no effect on it. Even so, the score system would have put his salary at 10.6M not 9.0M Again, that's the goal of all of this. Its to give contracts based on the scores so players with comparable numbers gt paid the same. Agreed it does look like Martinez got through too low. The reason for that was because of his injury history. He played 151 games in 2016, preceded by 126, 109, 86, 94 & 117 the previous 5 years. That's what created his discount under the old system.
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Post by Brew Crew GM - Tyler on Feb 11, 2018 0:36:07 GMT -6
On the player Justin Turner (age 32 at re-sign) who was re-signed at 8.5M, I don't really see where he had a lengthy track record of sustained production at all. He was resigned after the 2016 season where his previous 3 year's scores were: 64.37 - 64.15 - 64.23. His total at bats for those 3 years were: 556, 385 & 288. He hit his career high in HR's in 2016 with 27 and RBI's with 90. Prior to that, they were 16 & 60. Gonzalez (age 28) by comparison 3 year scores are: 76.47 - 33.31 - 37.82. Total at bats the last 3 years are: 455, 484, 344, Career high on HR's and RBI's last year at 23 & 90. Prior was 13 & 51. ====================================================================== The J.D. Martinez comp: J.D. Martinez - $9,000,000 70.25 - 81.54 - 80.88 (75.73 avg) 10.6M Those are the scores prior to his resigning last year. What he did in 2017 had no effect on it. Even so, the score system would have put his salary at 10.6M not 9.0M Again, that's the goal of all of this. Its to give contracts based on the scores so players with comparable numbers gt paid the same. Agreed it does look like Martinez got through too low. The reason for that was because of his injury history. He played 151 games in 2016, preceded by 126, 109, 86, 94 & 117 the previous 5 years. That's what created his discount under the old system. I'm purely talking consistency. Turner had a spread of .22 points in all three of those years and that's without taking very many ABs in a couple years. Martinez's spread was bigger but still only 11.29 points. Whereas with Gonzalez the spread is 43.16 points, which is a huge margin of potential outcomes. And that's with a good amount of AB's all three years. So he was getting time and still not being productive, until last year. And going into his age 29 season should we expect him to be a 33 point player or a 76 point player. This is my point, the spread is so large that just based off the fact that his one good year happened to be last year and not two years ago he gets boosted up over a million bucks since it's counted twice. Like I said this is just one player and I'm not trying to make this argument just based off of him. This just happens to be the example we keep talking about. And ultimately guys I will go with whatever system the TAB and the league as a whole decide. I'm just trying to provide a different perspective on the matter. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2018 1:25:30 GMT -6
On the player Justin Turner (age 32 at re-sign) who was re-signed at 8.5M, I don't really see where he had a lengthy track record of sustained production at all. He was resigned after the 2016 season where his previous 3 year's scores were: 64.37 - 64.15 - 64.23. His total at bats for those 3 years were: 556, 385 & 288. He hit his career high in HR's in 2016 with 27 and RBI's with 90. Prior to that, they were 16 & 60. Gonzalez (age 28) by comparison 3 year scores are: 76.47 - 33.31 - 37.82. Total at bats the last 3 years are: 455, 484, 344, Career high on HR's and RBI's last year at 23 & 90. Prior was 13 & 51. ====================================================================== The J.D. Martinez comp: J.D. Martinez - $9,000,000 70.25 - 81.54 - 80.88 (75.73 avg) 10.6M Those are the scores prior to his resigning last year. What he did in 2017 had no effect on it. Even so, the score system would have put his salary at 10.6M not 9.0M Again, that's the goal of all of this. Its to give contracts based on the scores so players with comparable numbers gt paid the same. Agreed it does look like Martinez got through too low. The reason for that was because of his injury history. He played 151 games in 2016, preceded by 126, 109, 86, 94 & 117 the previous 5 years. That's what created his discount under the old system. I'm purely talking consistency. Turner had a spread of .22 points in all three of those years and that's without taking very many ABs in a couple years. Martinez's spread was bigger but still only 11.29 points. Whereas with Gonzalez the spread is 43.16 points, which is a huge margin of potential outcomes. And that's with a good amount of AB's all three years. So he was getting time and still not being productive, until last year. And going into his age 29 season should we expect him to be a 33 point player or a 76 point player. This is my point, the spread is so large that just based off the fact that his one good year happened to be last year and not two years ago he gets boosted up over a million bucks since it's counted twice. Like I said this is just one player and I'm not trying to make this argument just based off of him. This just happens to be the example we keep talking about. And ultimately guys I will go with whatever system the TAB and the league as a whole decide. I'm just trying to provide a different perspective on the matter. I do get where you're coming from on all of that which we did try to address. The one-hit wonders with not much of a track record. Another player who came to mind was SP Jake Arrieta. Before that huge year he had, he was so-so to somewhat decent but certainly nothing like that one huge year. That's why we took a player's past 3 years into account. We double weighted the most current one which gave 50% of the total score but also added the 2 before that, each accounting for 25% of the total. Maybe it mirrors real baseball as more emphaasis is put on a player's "walk" year. Also on Gonzalez specifically, by adding the previous 2 years to him really lowered his yearly average from the 76.47 Fantrax had for him last year. By itself, that score was higher than Martinez's 3 year average. |
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Post by Rangers GM (Pete) on Feb 11, 2018 10:06:26 GMT -6
First of all, wow, lots of great conversation here, good to see the league alive!!!
Like I said, I like the new approach and think it is a great idea. As I mentioned I am not crazy about the spreads between great and pretty good guys. Thanks for doing the math on the resigns from last year, it is good to see that most are in the same ballpark. Looks like a couple than went in the $6 range, would have been pushed higher.
Yes, I agree that mediocre shouldn't be taking up resigns, but sometimes a team has no choice because they don't have other players and once they hit free agency the contracts are a bit ridiculous. In the end, we a pretty good cap, so a million or two either way vs. a big overpay in free agency doesn't make all that much of a difference, especially since minors not called up are free in this league. Perfect example for me this year is Daniel Murphy who I was planning on resigning. Not sure what the math works out to or how good of a low sales pitch I could have made. But if he is $7.5 vs $8.5, I am not sure it will really change my mind to resign him. Feels like we might be splitting hairs, and I know I initially brought up the lack of spread.
On the age discount, not sure if adding another discount tier >30 makes sense or just makes it more complicated.
On the length of the deal, I don't recall seeing a discount or added charge for more or less years. Again, not looking to make it more complicated, but maybe that is one way to factor in age and tying up a resign slot?
Since we are talking about resigns, I think I asked about it last year. While I know you can buy out a resigned player to relieve yourself the future salary. What about an option of paying a penalty to free up the resign slot?
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Post by Rockies GM (Joey) on Feb 11, 2018 10:35:28 GMT -6
Since we are talking about resigns, I think I asked about it last year. While I know you can buy out a resigned player to relieve yourself the future salary. What about an option of paying a penalty to free up the resign slot? I don't really see that as do-able its already 50% of remaining to buy-out a re-sign not sure what other penalty would even make sense. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2018 13:13:48 GMT -6
Since we are talking about resigns, I think I asked about it last year. While I know you can buy out a resigned player to relieve yourself the future salary. What about an option of paying a penalty to free up the resign slot? On that one, we do have the roundabout way that already exists to do that. Find another team willing to take on that re-sign and trade it to them. Penalty there will be whatever they can get out of you for taking on the re-sign which I'm sure would vary a great deal depending on the length and amount of it. |
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Post by Rangers GM (Pete) on Feb 11, 2018 13:45:56 GMT -6
Since we are talking about resigns, I think I asked about it last year. While I know you can buy out a resigned player to relieve yourself the future salary. What about an option of paying a penalty to free up the resign slot? On that one, we do have the roundabout way that already exists to do that. Find another team willing to take on that re-sign and trade it to them. Penalty there will be whatever they can get out of you for taking on the re-sign which I'm sure would vary a great deal depending on the length and amount of it. Well I am aware of that. I was talking about a way to buy back the slot in addition to buying out the contract. Instead of 50% maybe 75% or 100%. I would be owners choice which they would want. Just trying to open up options. So I have Ellsbury for 2018, last year of his resign for $10.5. What if instead of just waiving him and buying out his contract for $5.25, I agreed to pay a penalty to free up the resign. Say the 50% buy out plus the original contract, so $5.25+$10.5 = $15.75 for 2018, but I remove him from my roster and get the resign slot. Maybe too confusing to keep track of. Again, just bringing it up as an option to rid someone of a bad resign that either the current or former owner did. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2018 14:15:34 GMT -6
On that one, we do have the roundabout way that already exists to do that. Find another team willing to take on that re-sign and trade it to them. Penalty there will be whatever they can get out of you for taking on the re-sign which I'm sure would vary a great deal depending on the length and amount of it. Well I am aware of that. I was talking about a way to buy back the slot in addition to buying out the contract. Instead of 50% maybe 75% or 100%. I would be owners choice which they would want. Just trying to open up options. So I have Ellsbury for 2018, last year of his resign for $10.5. What if instead of just waiving him and buying out his contract for $5.25, I agreed to pay a penalty to free up the resign. Say the 50% buy out plus the original contract, so $5.25+$10.5 = $15.75 for 2018, but I remove him from my roster and get the resign slot. Maybe too confusing to keep track of. Again, just bringing it up as an option to rid someone of a bad resign that either the current or former owner did. Just me thinking outloud here as I have no ideas the others thoughts on it. On players like Ellsbury (Lincecum also) or any of those that were signed to 5 year re-signs, that is one of the perils in doing so. Normally a team goes 5 years to get the annual salary lower which certainly was a good strategy but it can backfire at the end. Not sure we should have an "out" for every situation. I re-signed Brandon Moss last year to 3 years. Sure I could have stretched him to 5 and saved some money but obviously that would have been a disaster waiting to happen. Not sure I should have had a way out of it if I had made that decision. On inherited contracts from previous GM's. I certainly feel everyone's pain there as I finally had Hunter Pence $9,000,000 (2017) expire. His HR & RBI totals the last 3 years were: 13 & 67, 13 & 57, 9 & 40. It was just one of those things I had to deal with. |
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Post by stevew (MARLINS GM) on Feb 11, 2018 14:26:20 GMT -6
I like taking the subjectivity out of it. My blood pressure is still recovering from the Trumbo debate last year and would have loved to save the $600k that the new system values him at (thanks for calculating Pete).
One question, and I apologize if it’s been addressed already, but is the salary the same regardless of deal length? So that aspect of it is gone now?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2018 14:50:10 GMT -6
I like taking the subjectivity out of it. My blood pressure is still recovering from the Trumbo debate last year and would have loved to save the $600k that the new system values him at (thanks for calculating Pete). One question, and I apologize if it’s been addressed already, but is the salary the same regardless of deal length? So that aspect of it is gone now? Yes, salary is the same no matter how long the deal is. (I remember Trumbo!! What a pain a player like that is to figure. Leads the league in HR's one minute and then sucks.) |
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Post by OaklandGM on Feb 11, 2018 15:58:44 GMT -6
I love it, great work by those involved in the discussion. Takes subjectivity out of the equation, yet still allows strategy to play a role in terms of whether to accept the deal and for how long. Also allows for trade strategy to come in terms of how to use your allotted resign slots.
As a side, but this me, huge benefit, this provides roster salary consistency for the league by establishing baseline max resign amounts. This keeps the necessary distinction between resigns and free agency, while safe-guarding rosters from having bad long term contracts. Some will happen, but this helps quite a bit. Always a necessary thing to consider for league health as owners come and go, a roster stuck with bad contracts always makes it harder to find new owners for the long haul.
Thanks!
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Post by Rockies GM (Joey) on Feb 12, 2018 17:39:26 GMT -6
There is a issue with how to calculate the score we are working on it which could change some already posted re-signs.
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Post by RoyalsGM on Feb 16, 2018 10:12:00 GMT -6
Should I wait to post my re-signs until this is worked out?
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Post by Rockies GM (Joey) on Feb 16, 2018 10:26:59 GMT -6
It's worked out.
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